Investigating Predictability of Different "Forms of Return" in Tehran Stock Exchange: Some Rolling Regressions-based Evidence

Document Type : Research Paper


1 1. Accounting, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, AL Zahra University, Tehran, Iran 2. Accounting, Department of Management, Economic and Accounting, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran

2 Accounting, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, AL Zahra University, Tehran, Iran

3 Industrial Management/ Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran


This paper has provided "out of sample" evidence of stock returns predictability in Tehran Stock Exchange. 68 qualified companies over the period from 2002 to 2015 were selected and for five different "forms of returns", five superior predictive models have been designed by applying "General to specific" approach of modeling technique. Then "out of sample" analysis, based on rolling regressions, has been used to test the validation of the designed models. The result showed that all designed models have sufficient "out of sample" validity and the aggregate returns have a higher predictability level.


Main Subjects

Article Title [فارسی]

بررسی پیشبینی پذیری اشکال مختلف بازده سهام در بازار سرمایه تهران: شواهدی مبتنی بر رگرسیونهای غلطان

Authors [فارسی]

  • اعظم مهتدی 1
  • رضوان حجازی 2
  • سید علی حسینی 2
  • منصور مومنی 3
1 گروه حسابداری/ دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا(س)، تهران، ایران و گروه حسابداری، بخش مدیریت، اقتصاد و حسابداری/ دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
2 گروه حسابداری/ دانشکدة علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا(س)، تهران، ایران.
3 گروه مدیریت صنعتی/ دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
Abstract [فارسی]

 این مقاله شواهدی "برون نمونهای" در خصوص پیشبینی پذیریِ اشکال مختلف بازده سهام در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران ارائه میکند. ۶۸ شرکت واجد شرایط برای دوره زمانی1381 تا 1394 انتخاب و مورد بررسی قرار گرفتهاند. ابتدا با به کارگیری رویکرد "کل به جزء" از تکنیک های مدل سازی، بهترین مدل پیشبینی کنندهِ 5 شکلِ مختلف از بازده، طراحی شده و سپس با بکارگیری تحلیل های مبتنی بر رگرسیون های غلطان، اعتبارِ "برون نمونهای" مدل های طراحی شده آزمون شده است. نتایج نشان میدهد تمامی مدلهای طراحی شده، اعتبار "برون نمونهای" کافی داشته و بازدههای انباشته قابلیت پیشبینی پذیری بالاتری دارند.

Keywords [فارسی]

  • بازده
  • برون نمونهای
  • رگرسیونهای غلطان
  • رویکرد
  • کل به جزء
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