Evolutionary Game Theory Approach to Technology Development of Oil and Gas Equipment Manufacturing Industry: The Case of the Ten Major Commodity Groups’ Project of the Petroleum Industry

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD Candidate at Department of Management, Faculty of Economic & Progress Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran

2 Faculty Member at Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran

3 Faculty Member at Department of Management, Faculty of Economic & Progress Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Technology development, especially in petroleum industries, is one of the most important ways of economic development in oil-rich countries. However, despite such challenges as structural economic problems, the issue of moral hazards, and the conflict of interests, government policies are crucial. This study analyzed the long-term behavior of the government and the private sector as two main actors using the evolutionary game theory and solved their strategies by replicator dynamic equations. Finally, based on a real-world case in Iran, a numerical study was performed to better understand the characteristics of the game model under realistic conditions. The outputs indicate that the main approach of the government, with minimal incentive mechanisms, should be legal monitoring. Sensitivity analyses on some key parameters show that the important factor in project implementation is attention to the private sector’s revenues and expenditures, and the government’s revenues and expenditures have little effect on the outputs and behavior change.

Keywords

Main Subjects


Article Title [فارسی]

بررسی توسعه تکنولوژی صنعت ساخت تجهیزات نفت و گاز با رویکرد نظریه بازی ها:مورد مطالعاتی ده گروه کالایی استراتژیک صنعت نفت

Authors [فارسی]

  • مهدی باقری نصرابادی 1
  • عبدالله جاسبی 2
  • علی بنیادی نائینی 3
  • سعید شوال پور 3
1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت سیاستگذاری علم و فناوری، دانشکده مدیریت،اقتصاد و مهندسی پیشرفت دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران,تهران ,ایران
2 استاد دانشکده مهندسی صنایع دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران,تهران ,ایران
3 استادیار دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و مهندسی پیشرفت دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران ,ایران
Abstract [فارسی]

توسعه تکنولوژی بخصوص در صنایع نفت، یکی از مهم ترین راهکارهای توسعه اقتصادی در کشور های نفت خیز می باشد.از طرفی حل چالش هایی مانند مشکلات ساختاری، معضلات اخلاقی و تضاد منافع، سیاستگذاری مناسب دولت در این زمینه را ضروری می سازد.در نهایت مبتنی بر یک مورد مطالعاتی واقعی در ایران، از مطالعات عددی برای درک بهتر در مدلسازی نظریه بازیها بهره گرفته شد.نتایج نشان دادند که مهم ترین رویکرد و سیاست دولت می بایست نظارت قانونی باشد هر چند باید از حداقل سیاست های انگیزشی نیز استفاده کند.در ادامه تحلیل حساسیت بر روی برخی پارامترهای کلیدی صورت پذیرفت که نشان داد که توجه به هزینه ها و درامدهای بخش خصوصی مهم ترین پارامترهای اجرای این پروژه می باشند و درامد و هزینه های دولت تاثیر قابل ملاحظه ای بر روی نتایج مدل و پروژه نخواهند داشت.

Keywords [فارسی]

  • فناوری و توسعه اقتصادی
  • سیاست گذاری
  • صنایع تولیدی نفت و گاز
  • همکاری
  • مخاطرات اخلاقی
Anderson, D. R., Sweeney, D. J., Williams, T. A., Camm, J. D., & Martin, K., (2012). An introduction to management science: Quantitative approaches to decision making (13th ed.). South-Western Cengage Learning
Belderbos, R., Carree, M., & Lokshin, B. (2004). Cooperative R&D and firm performance. Research Policy, 33(10), 1477–1492.
Brown, J. S., & Vincent, T. L. (1987). A theory for the evolutionary game. Theoretical Population Biology, 31, 140-166.
Dixit, A., & Skeath, S. (2004). Games of strategy (2nd ed.). W. W. Norton & Company.
Edwards, R.W., Kumar, P., & Ranjan, R. (2002). Understanding organisation culture and innovation: A case study approach [Paper presentation]. Sixth International Research Conference on Quality, Innovation and Knowledge Management, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Esmaeili, M., Allameh, G., & Tajvidi, T. (2016). Using game theory for analyzing pricing models in the closed loop supply chain from short-and long-term perspectives. International Journal of Production Research, 54, 2152–2169.
Freeman, C., & Soete, L. (1997). The economics of industrial innovation. Psychology Press.
Furman, J. L., Hayes, R. (2004). Catching up or standing still? National innovative productivity among “follower” countries, 1978–1999. Res. Policy, 33, 1329–1354.
Gintis, H. (2009). Game theory evolving: A problem-centered introduction to modeling strategic interaction. Princeton University Press.
Hofbauer, J., & Sigmund, K. (1998). Evolutionary games and population dynamics. Cambridge University Press.
Hult, G. T. M., Hurley, R. F., & Knight, G. A. (2004). Innovativeness: Its antecedents and impact on business performance. Industrial Marketing Management, 33(5), 429-438.
Johnson, G., Whittington, R., & Scholes, K., (2011). Exploring strategy text & cases. Pearson Education Limited.
Nieto, M., & Quevedo, P. (2005). Absorptive capacity, technological opportunity, knowledge spillovers, and innovative effort. Technovation, 25(10), 1141-1157.
Rees, T. (2005). An introduction to evolutionary game theory. UBC Department of Computer Science.
Ten commodity report,research institute of sharif university(RISTIP),2018
Rubinstein, A. (1998). Modeling bounded rationality (1st ed.). MIT Press.
Sachs, D. J., & McArthur, J. W. (2002). Technology and the new economy. The MIT Press.
Samuelson, L. (1997). Evolutionary games and equilibrium selection. The MIT Press.
Statistical Center of Iran. (2011). Average gross national product in Iran. SCI. https://www.amar.org.ir/.
Tajeddini, K, (2016). Analyzing the influence of learning orientation and innovativeness on performance of public organizations: The case of Iran. Journal of Management Development, 35(20), 134-153. https://doi.org/10.1108/JMD-03-2015-0033
Tajeddini, K., & Trueman, M. (2008). Effect of customer orientation and innovativeness on business performance: A study of small-sized service retailers. International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business, 7(2), 169-184.
Tajeddini, K., & Trueman, M. (2012). Managing Swiss hospitality: How cultural antecedents of innovation and customer-oriented value systems can influence performance in the hotel industry. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 31(4), 1119-1129.
Tajeddini, K., & Trueman, M. (2014). Perceptions of innovativeness among Iranian hotel managers. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Technology, 5(1), 62-77.
Tajeddini, K., & Trueman, M. (2016). Environment-strategy and alignment in a restricted, transitional economy: Empirical research on its application to Iranian state-owned enterprises. Long Range Planning, 49(5), 570-583.
Vega-Redondo, F. (1996). Evolution, games, and economic behaviour. Oxford University Press.
Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (2004). Theory of games and economic behavior (Sixtieth anniversary edition). Princeton University Press
Watson, J. (2013). Strategy: An introduction to game theory (3rd ed.). W. W. Norton & Company.
Weibull, J. W. (1995). Evolutionary game theory. The MIT Press.
Wu, J. (2011). The asymmetric roles of business ties and political ties in product innovation. Journal of Business Research, 64(11), 1151–1156.