Evolutionary Game Theory Approach to Technology Development of Oil and Gas Equipment Manufacturing Industry: The Case of the Ten Major Commodity Groups’ Project of the Petroleum Industry

Document Type : Research Paper


1 PhD Candidate at Department of Management, Faculty of Economic & Progress Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran

2 Faculty Member at Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran

3 Faculty Member at Department of Management, Faculty of Economic & Progress Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran


Technology development, especially in petroleum industries, is one of the most important ways of economic development in oil-rich countries. However, despite such challenges as structural economic problems, the issue of moral hazards, and the conflict of interests, government policies are crucial. This study analyzed the long-term behavior of the government and the private sector as two main actors using the evolutionary game theory and solved their strategies by replicator dynamic equations. Finally, based on a real-world case in Iran, a numerical study was performed to better understand the characteristics of the game model under realistic conditions. The outputs indicate that the main approach of the government, with minimal incentive mechanisms, should be legal monitoring. Sensitivity analyses on some key parameters show that the important factor in project implementation is attention to the private sector’s revenues and expenditures, and the government’s revenues and expenditures have little effect on the outputs and behavior change.


Main Subjects

Article Title [فارسی]

بررسی توسعه تکنولوژی صنعت ساخت تجهیزات نفت و گاز با رویکرد نظریه بازی ها:مورد مطالعاتی ده گروه کالایی استراتژیک صنعت نفت

Authors [فارسی]

  • مهدی باقری نصرابادی 1
  • عبدالله جاسبی 2
  • علی بنیادی نائینی 3
  • سعید شوال پور 3
1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت سیاستگذاری علم و فناوری، دانشکده مدیریت،اقتصاد و مهندسی پیشرفت دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران,تهران ,ایران
2 استاد دانشکده مهندسی صنایع دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران,تهران ,ایران
3 استادیار دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و مهندسی پیشرفت دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران ,ایران
Abstract [فارسی]

توسعه تکنولوژی بخصوص در صنایع نفت، یکی از مهم ترین راهکارهای توسعه اقتصادی در کشور های نفت خیز می باشد.از طرفی حل چالش هایی مانند مشکلات ساختاری، معضلات اخلاقی و تضاد منافع، سیاستگذاری مناسب دولت در این زمینه را ضروری می سازد.در نهایت مبتنی بر یک مورد مطالعاتی واقعی در ایران، از مطالعات عددی برای درک بهتر در مدلسازی نظریه بازیها بهره گرفته شد.نتایج نشان دادند که مهم ترین رویکرد و سیاست دولت می بایست نظارت قانونی باشد هر چند باید از حداقل سیاست های انگیزشی نیز استفاده کند.در ادامه تحلیل حساسیت بر روی برخی پارامترهای کلیدی صورت پذیرفت که نشان داد که توجه به هزینه ها و درامدهای بخش خصوصی مهم ترین پارامترهای اجرای این پروژه می باشند و درامد و هزینه های دولت تاثیر قابل ملاحظه ای بر روی نتایج مدل و پروژه نخواهند داشت.

Keywords [فارسی]

  • فناوری و توسعه اقتصادی
  • سیاست گذاری
  • صنایع تولیدی نفت و گاز
  • همکاری
  • مخاطرات اخلاقی
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