Using fuzzy FMEA and fuzzy logic in project risk management

Document Type: Research Paper


1 Faculty of Industrial Engineering, K.N Toosi University of Technology

2 Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University


Risk management is one of the most important phases of project management and is
the most recently used by many researchers. In this paper, a fuzzy based method was
proposed which identifies different kinds of risks through the project life cycle.
Then, the project risk magnitude can be obtained in regards to five factors, namely
“severity”, “occurrence”, and “not detection” which form fuzzy FMEA and also two
other factors namely project phase weights and risks weights. These two factors in
addition to risk priority number (RPN) factors can lead to the application of better
risk management. Based on the project risk magnitude, the appropriate risk response
should be selected. The proposed model covers three parts of risk management
process: 1. Risk identification, 2. Quantitative risk analysis and 3. Risk response
planning. Finally, this model was applied by a numerical example, and project risk
magnitude was calculated for an assumed company, to verify the proposed method.


Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

استفاده از FMEA و منطق فازی در مدیریت ریسک پروژه

Authors [Persian]

  • عماد روغنیان 1
  • فاطمه مجیبیان 2
1 دانشکده مهندسی صنایع ، دانشگاه خواجه نصیر طوسی
2 دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
Abstract [Persian]

مدیریت ریسک یکی از مهم‌ترین فازهای مدیریت پروژه است که توجه بسیاری از محققان را به خود جلب کرده است. در این مقاله مدل فازی‌ای ارائه می‌شود که انواع مختلف ریسک را در دورة عمر پروژه شناسایی می‌کند. سپس، مقدار ریسک پروژه با پنج عامل شامل شدت، وقوع و تشخیص، که FMEA را شکل می‌دهند، و دو عامل اوزان فازهای پروژه و اوزان ریسک‌ها به‌دست می‌آید، به طوری که این دو عامل به همراه عوامل RNP منجر به مدیریت بهتر ریسک می‌شود. بر اساس مقدار ریسک پروژه، پاسخگوی مناسب ریسک انتخاب می‌شود. در واقع، مدل پیشنهادی سه بخش از فرایند ریسک را پوشش می‌دهد: تشخیص ریسک، تجزیه و تحلیل کمّی ریسک و برنامه‌ریزی برای پاسخگویی به ریسک. در پایان مدل پیشنهادی در ساختار شرکت فرضی الف به کار گرفته می‌شود.

Keywords [Persian]

  • تجزیه و تحلیل عوامل شکست و آثار آن (FMEA)
  • فرایند تجزیه و تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP)
  • قواعد فازی
  • مدیریت ریسک پروژه
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