Project Portfolio Risk Response Selection Using Bayesian Belief Networks

Document Type : Research Paper


Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran


Risk identification, impact assessment, and response planning constitute three building blocks of project risk management. Correspondingly, three types of interactions could be envisioned between risks, between impacts of several risks on a portfolio component, and between several responses. While the interdependency of risks is a well-recognized issue, the other two types of interactions remain unacknowledged in the risk response planning literature. This research suggests a Bayesian belief network for modeling portfolio risks, their impacts, and responses. There are three kinds of nodes in this network: nodes representing portfolio risks, nodes corresponding to risk impacts on each objective of each portfolio component, and nodes showing response actions. The problem is to decide which responses are to be selected. For this purpose, an optimization model is proposed that minimizes the sum of both residual risk effects on portfolio component objectives and response implementation costs. Subsequently, a genetic algorithm is introduced to solve the model. A simple portfolio instance is also provided to illustrate the proposed model.


Article Title [فارسی]

انتخاب پاسخ ریسک‌های سبد پروژه با استفاده از شبکه‌های باور بیزین

Authors [فارسی]

  • قاسم مختاری
  • فاطمه آقاگلی
گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران
Abstract [فارسی]

شناسایی ریسک‌ها، ارزیابی اثرات آنها، و برنامه‌ریزی پاسخ‌ها، سه مؤلفه اصلی مدیریت ریسک پروژه هستند. به طور متناظر، سه نوع وابستگی نیز قابل تصور است: بین ریسک‌ها، بین اثرات ریسک‌ها روی هر جزء از سبد پروژه، و بین پاسخ‌ها. با این که وابستگی بین ریسک‌ها، موضوعی شناخته شده است، هنوز دو نوع دیگر وابستگی، در ادبیات برنامه‌ریزی پاسخ ریسک‌ها مورد توجه جدی قرار نگرفته‌اند. این تحقیق، یک شبکه بیزین برای مدل‌سازی ریسک‌های سبد پروژه، اثرات آنها، و پاسخ‌ها پیشنهاد می‌کند. سه نوع گره در این شبکه وجود دارد: گره‌های معرف ریسک‌های سبد، گره‌های متناظر با اثرات ریسک‌ها روی هر هدف از هر جزء سبد، و گره‌های نشان‌دهنده پاسخ‌ها. مسئله این است که کدام پاسخ‌ها انتخاب شوند. برای این منظور، یک مدل بهینه‌سازی ارائه شده است که مجموع اثرات باقی‌مانده ریسک‌ها روی اهداف اجزاء سبد و هزینه‌های اجرای پاسخ‌ها را حداقل می‌کند. در ادامه، یک الگوریتم ژنتیک برای حل مدل ارائه شده است. یک سبد به عنوان مثال ارائه شده تا نحوه کاربرد مدل را نشان دهد.

Keywords [فارسی]

  • انتخاب پاسخ ریسک
  • مدیریت ریسک سبد پروژه
  • شبکه باور بیزین
  • الگوریتم ژنتیک
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 Your Comment: What is this? A book chapter, project report, etc.? Please provide the necessary information accordingly.
Reply: It’s not so clear. It seems to be technical report or a working paper that has never been published. We revised it according to google scholar APA citation.
In the following paper of IJMS:
it is cited as:
Ben-David, I., Rabinowitz, G. & Raz, T. (2002). Economic optimization of project risk management efforts. Project Risk Management Optimization, 1, 1-10